Is AI closing the front door to new careers?

The researchers tracked hiring data from 2022 through 2026, comparing fields that are heavily impacted by AI to those that are not. For entry-level workers, the gap is stark: those in fields with high AI exposure are seeing significantly lower hiring rates compared to their peers in other industries. The study notes that companies are not necessarily firing people in these roles; rather, they are simply choosing not to hire as many new, junior-level employees. In fields where AI is used to fully automate tasks, like basic bookkeeping or clerical work, entry-level hiring has dropped sharply. In contrast, fields that use AI to assist humans rather than replace them have seen more stable or even growing employment numbers for young workers.

To understand why this is happening, it helps to distinguish between two types of knowledge. Some jobs rely on codified knowledge—information that is clearly written down in textbooks or manuals and can be easily learned. Because this information is standardized, AI can be trained to read, summarize, and execute these tasks quite effectively. Other jobs rely on tacit knowledge—the kind of expertise you only gain through years of hands-on experience, mentorship, and learning from mistakes. AI currently struggles to replicate this "on-the-job" wisdom. Traditionally, entry-level workers were hired to handle the basic, codified tasks while they shadowed senior workers to build up their tacit knowledge. When AI starts handling those basic tasks, companies often decide they no longer need the junior employee to do them, inadvertently removing the very training ground that allows young workers to eventually become seniors.

This shift points to a subtle, long-term danger for the labor market. If the traditional on-ramp for early-career workers is removed, the next generation may struggle to build the foundational experience required for more senior roles later on. The study suggests that holding a college degree can act as a buffer, likely because higher education often prepares workers for roles that rely more on complex, nuanced problem-solving rather than just routine data processing. The result is a labor market that stays stable for those who already have a seat at the table, but becomes much more exclusive for those trying to pull up a chair. We are not seeing a total collapse of employment, but we are seeing the quiet erosion of the entry-level experience that has defined career paths for decades.